Full Details — Both the North & South Island have a chance of low level snow this week – even if just briefly. A significant Antarctic blast of polar air is headed to New Zealand mid week. It’s bad news for those in early lambing but for skiers and those who love snow this mid-spring blast of super cold air may be just what you’re wanting.

Snow is forecast to fall in a number of main centres in the South Island and some even in the North Island too. Snowfall totals to lower levels and sea level aren’t that huge due to the angle of the airflow – but the risk for a flurry may be widespread for a time. The angle of the airflow (being a sou’west set up mostly) will see Southland shoulder the bulk of the snowy weather – limiting the totals further north of Central Otago, Canterbury and into the lower North Island. This means inland areas may be much sunnier than you expect – but certainly very cold too.

Perhaps, surprisingly, it may be the North Island places that have a chance for snow, even if not much, which shows the extent of this polar blast. “Snow may be mixed in with the rain but we could see some flurries below 200 metres in the North Island for a time on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning” says WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan. Snow to low levels in the North Island are unlikely to settle – or at least settle for long – but higher up could cause problems for State Highway’s 1 and 5 at higher elevations.

Hail showers will also be in the mix, down to sea level in both islands.

Rain and snowfall totals, generally speaking, aren’t too huge this week with most of the country finally leaning drier late week.

In true spring style this is all short lived – with a very powerful high rolling in this Friday and weekend bringing frosts but drier, settled weather. In fact, Dunedin’s high is +15 this Sunday (following a forecast daytime high of only +4C this coming Wednesday!).

1⃣🥶The first cold front arrives around Noon Tuesday in Southland. By Tuesday night it will be moving up the North Island.

2⃣❄️The main pulse of polar #Antarctic air arrives Wednesday AM in Southland and reaches Wellington during the afternoon, then Auckland early Thursday AM. pic.twitter.com/rLuYn4rueg

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) October 3, 2022

HOW MUCH SNOW IS COMING & WHERE?
As you can see from this map below, many places are in the pale blue shading, which means a chance of snow but limited accumulation. The heaviest falls in yellow and orange are much more serious totals. Dark blue is heavy enough to close highways.

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SOUTH ISLAND CENTRES LIKELY TO RECEIVE SNOW (either snow that settles, or lightly mixed in with rain – heaviest snow will be in Northern Southland and the Otago ranges and above 200 metres where it will certainly settle). Peak times for snow look to be Wednesday and Thursday AM.

• Dunedin
• Balfour
• Lumsden
• Te Anau
• Queenstown
• Gore
• Cromwell
• Alexandra
• Roxburgh
• Wanaka
• Twizel
• Tekapo
• Christchurch
• Rangiora
• Kaikoura

NORTH ISLAND CENTRES THAT MAY GET SNOW (Brief light snow, a rain/snow mix, or sleet – heaviest snow will be around Central Plateau and the southern and eastern ranges. Most snow will fall above 300m in the lower half of the island and above 700m in the northern half). Peak time for snow looks to be Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

• Wellington hilltop suburbs
• Masterton
• Dannevirke
• Taihape
• Hunterville
• Waiouru
• Ohakune
• Stratford
• Turangi (or nearby)

For some of these places the snow may only briefly fall mixed in with rain, especially below 250m. Sleet is also highly likely to sea level for a time in the lower half of the island, from Wellington to Wairarapa to Hawke’s Bay. Snow flurries may also fall very near to these centres, if not directly over them.

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HIGHWAYS LIKELY IMPACTED – SNOW AND BLACK ICE:

SOUTH ISLAND:
Snow may impact all South Island alpine passes – although it’s worth noting the further west you go the drier it gets. Black ice may also be an issue in the South Island. For example, Arthur’s Pass has a few brief snow flurries possible Wednesday night, but then the overnight low plummets to -11C, with -7C on Thursday night/Friday morning there. Snow may impact many highways and roads across Southland and Otago.

NORTH ISLAND:
SH1 the Desert Road and SH5 the Napier-Taupo highway can expect snow to settle for a time. SH2 over the Remutaka Ranges may also get a dusting, as might SH4 and SH49 around Mt Ruapehu.

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HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE SNOW GO?
WeatherWatch.co.nz expects a dusting of snow on the Gisborne Ranges and as far north as Mt Te Aroha on the Kaimai Ranges of eastern Waikato and potentially the mountain tops of the Coromandel Peninsula (due east of Auckland City). Snow totals on the summits won’t be much this far north with the cold front only lingering for a few hours on Thursday morning.

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WIND CHILL WILL BE EXTREME FOR A TIME
Overnight temperatures in the South Island will drop to -10 to -15C through the mountains and low lying areas will also be hit hard.

RuralWeather.co.nz has HOURLY WINDCHILL for your hyper-local part of NZ. Click on the “Temperature” box top of page to look for the blue windchill graphs. RuralWeather.co.nz also has the NZ Frost Forecaster, clearly identifying frost risks at your property for the week ahead.

These maps show how much colder Wednesday & Thursday will be (compared with previously recorded temperatures for Oct 5 & 6.)

Most of New Zealand is several degrees below normal.

Check https://t.co/D35ySCBYsG for your hyper-local and hourly #windchill temperatures this week… pic.twitter.com/ErISWjybJC

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) October 2, 2022

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WINDY WEATHER TOO
Severe gales with gusts over 100km/h are possible in coastal areas of both islands for a time as this moves through. This will mean significant wind chill, with some places below Freezing (0C) for more than 36 hours.

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Our next snow map update: Tuesday morning before 9am.

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• WeatherWatch.co.nz and RuralWeather.co.nz