Hi Jet,
Monday afternoon December 2nd.
– WW

Hi Tony, here’s the raw data from the Australian Government. In NZ, NIWA is very commercial for a Govt Agency so NIWA just give their prediction but don’t provide data to support it (as open data means others might use it, and NZ Govt is against fair competition). Here’s the data so you can see for yourself in graph form: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean and it shows no major ramp up yet to La Nina.

It’s always been possible that a La Nina might form, but for now NZ’s weather in 2024 continues to be dominated from south of NZ not the equator. We are forecasting spring weather into December with increasing dry areas. A similar outlook to NIWA maybe, but without the La Nina focus quite so much.

Kind regards
Phil D

Hey Bill, it’s a yes and a no when it comes to relief. The ‘no’ comes from the fact we said back in August that the wilder than usual storms over the Southern Ocean this year would highly likely extend the south-west flow over NZ into December (keeping spring weather going until the start of January). That means Southland, Fiordland and Westland are shouldering it for much of the country. The ‘yes’ comes from the fact despite the regular cold fronts you’re still getting, there are more dry and mild days increasingly coming into the mix. As the days get longer and longer hopefully we’ll see more calming of our weather going into summer… or at least tilting your winds more westerly to keep them milder and drier.
Cheers
Phil D