Why is it raining in the north?  It’s rare that we need to bring this policy out but as part of being as transparent as possible we have to admit that yesterday we simply ‘got it wrong’ for Auckland and Northland.

It wasn’t until yesterday evening that we suddenly noticed rain clouds were on the way and not just a few showers.

So why did we – and others – get it wrong?   Well there are two things at play here – a pool of unstable air over the Auckland and Northland region and the development of a low north east of New Zealand.   Quite simply the low deepened quicker than we thought and the pool of unstable air was more intense than expected. 

Our computer models predicted a 40% chance of showers in the Friday morning update for Saturday – by Friday evening they had an 80% chance of rain.  Quite a big swing in just 12 hours.

Saturday is going to be a wet, cloudy, cold day for these two regions – but tomorrow is looking sunny.

We’ve also dropped our high for Auckland to just 14 degrees, from 17. ..some parts may only reach 13 others may reach 15…but either way it’s going to be cold!

Weather forecasting is still a long way off from being 100% accurate, but we do apologise for the incorrect forecasts yesterday.

The Weather Watch Team