June’s final week: Low crosses NZ from west to east & powers back into stormy system (+6 Maps)
23/06/2024 11:17pm
A low pressure zone that has affected NZ’s weather for at least 11 days will finally shift from being over the Tasman Sea to out over the Pacific Ocean east of the North Island by Tuesday.
Light winds, low cloud, fog patches and isolated downpours are possible over many regions as this occurs, before wind and rain return to those mainly along the eastern North Island and some in the eastern South Island.
The low might be weak in many places for most of Monday, but it’s large and unstable – and over the duration of Monday this low pressure zone will rapidly transform energy into a new low east of East Cape where it may well reach storm status offshore (with gales around most, or all, of the centre). If severe weather is possible over NZ from this new eastern low it will likely be mainly on the eastern side of the North Island, from East Cape over into BoP and down to about Hawke’s Bay, with rain and strong winds in some areas. Wairarapa and other neighbouring regions might be affected but less likely with severe conditions. Severe weather risks look marginal (meaning this is still a “wait and see” set up for some eastern areas).
MetService warnings and watches nationwide map can be found here.
Patchy rain and drizzle patches, along with easterlies and cloud, are also expected into the eastern South Island for the start of the week, clearing later in the week.
The same high pressure zone that kept the low stuck west of NZ for over a week may then keep this low stuck east of the country, as it all very slowly moves eastwards across the planet. Because the high holding it up is likely to continue to do so, it means eastern areas of the North Island are now the ones to have a more changeable forecast due to the instability caused by this system. The low east of the North Island will create bigger swells/waves along the eastern North Island as it churns offshore, bringing Wairarapa into some of the risk zone too.
But following behind it all?
A new high pressure zone will be coming in for many other places, keeping winds lighter in southern regions, plus drier and clearer skies across more of NZ later in the week. This means cooler or colder nights, but Frosts look fairly limited to more inland and elevated parts of the South Island.
Fog patches are also possible. You can find your Cloud/Fog risk times under “Trends” in our new app, or top of the page at www.RuralWeather.co.nz.
In total, this low pressure zone may impact NZ for over 15 days by the time it finally shifts away this coming Friday or Saturday.
More settled weather is likely for the upcoming long weekend, but rain is also forecast for a few places. We’ll have more details about sky conditions for Matariki in our Monday weather video.
- WeatherWatch.co.nz
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