All the computer models are now agreeing that a tropical cyclone is imminent between Vanuatu and Fiji within the next 12 to 36 hours, reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.

The two mainstream global models that we rely on are predicting a tropical cyclone due north of New Zealand and tracking south east.

The likely severe cyclone isn’t expected to weaken as it heads south either, with WeatherWatch.co.nz predicting the storm will likely make Category 4 strength, with winds gusting as much as 280km/h over the open waters.

But a large high centred thousands of kilometres from the low will be New Zealand’s saving grace says Head Weather Analyst Philip Duncan.  “Cyclones can’t survive in high air pressure.  They chose the path of least resistance and behave quite differently from the usual lows we see near New Zealand.  This large high to our west should be strong enough to guide this tropical storm well to the east of New Zealand, however if the high weakens at all it could increase the chances of the storm tracking closer to our east coast”.

Mr Duncan says the storm should maintain “tropical cyclone” status as it heads into New Zealand waters around Wednesday next week. 

The sea surface temperatures east of East Cape remain in the low to mid 20s but the temperatures rapidly drop south of that, which is when the storm is likely to transition into an extratropical cyclone (this is when the core of the storm shifts from being warm to cold).

It’s likely the ex-cyclone will pass very near the Chatham Islands.

Big seas are still expected to be the main feature around eastern parts of the North Island.

WeatherWatch.co.nz will have regular updates across the weekend and into next week as this tropical cyclone develops and heads out of the tropics and into New Zealand waters.

The pending cyclone is still not likely to hit New Zealand despite its very close proximity.

Maps

Wind map 1pm, Thursday – Weathermap.co.nz

Fiji Meteoroligcal Service – chances of a cyclone on Monday

GFS map – we’ve highlighted the large high that is acting as a brick wall, stopping this potential cyclone from hitting NZ

Current Sea Surface temperatures – Weathermap.co.nz