Issued at 7:37am 30/05/2025
Valid from 7:37am 30/05/2025 to Midnight 30/05/2025
A strong unstable west to southwest flow will cover the southern South Island today, with frequent heavy showers and possible squally thunderstorms. There is a moderate risk of squally thunderstorms about southern Fiordland, coastal Southland and Clutha through most of this morning and afternoon, and also about northern Fiordland from late morning to early afternoon, then the risk reduces to low from evening. These thunderstorms will be squally with brief heavy rain, hail, and wind gusts of 80-110km/h. Snow is also possible above 600 metres. There is a lower risk of a few thunderstorms spreading further inland and also into Dunedin as indicated on the chart. There is also a low risk of one or two thunderstorms about Westland and near Banks Peninsula this afternoon. Also, although not depicted on the chart, there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms at the Chatham Islands tonight. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.
Issued at 6:57pm 30/05/2025
Valid from Midnight 30/05/2025 to Midday 31/05/2025
A very strong west to southwest flow will cover the southern South Island Saturday morning. Severe Weather Warnings and Watches for wind are in force for parts of central and southern New Zealand. For more detail, see https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home. Embedded within this strong west to southwest flow, there is a moderate risk of a few squally thunderstorms about coastal Clutha and Stewart Island before dawn, and a surrounding low risk for southern Fiordland, Southland, inland Clutha and Dunedin until about dawn as indicated on the chart. Any thunderstorms that occur will bring brief heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts of 90-110km/h. There is also a low risk of a few severe thunderstorms with wind gusts in excess of 110km/h, and this is covered by the broad-scale severe gale warning. Also, although not depicted on the chart, there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms at the Chatham Islands before dawn, and again from late morning. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand Saturday morning.
Issued at 9:33am 30/05/2025
Valid from Midday 31/05/2025 to Midnight 31/05/2025
No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period. No thunderstorms are expected over mainland New Zealand during the second half of Saturday, however, and although not depicted on the chart. there is a moderate risk of squally thunderstorms at the Chatham Islands on Saturday afternoon and early evening with hail. Note, a severe gale warning is in force for the Chatham Islands on Saturday, and this includes the mention of squally thunderstorms,
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.