Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 8:08am 26/02/2025
Valid from 8:08am 26/02/2025 to 1:00am 27/02/2025
The combination of a southerly wind change moving northwards over the lower and central North Island, and onshore afternoon sea breezes, are expected to produce scattered showers this afternoon and evening. There is an associated low risk of a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening about the lower and central North Island, from Horowhenua to inland Whanganui and Central Hawke's Bay as indicated on the chart. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.
Issued at 7:29pm 26/02/2025
Valid from 1:00am 27/02/2025 to 1:00pm 27/02/2025
No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period. Reviewed at 7:30pm Wednesday - no change.
Issued at 9:06am 26/02/2025
Valid from 1:00pm 27/02/2025 to 1:00am 28/02/2025
A combination of afternoon and early evening heating and wind convergence are expected to bring a few heavy showers to inland and eastern parts of Bay of Plenty, and northern parts of Gisborne/Tairawhiti and Taupo. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in these areas. No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
