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Thunderstorm Outlook

Issued at 7:23am 8/02/2025

Valid from 7:23am 8/02/2025 to 1:00am 9/02/2025

A high lies over much of the country. A front is expected to be approaching the south of the South Island tonight. Light winds and daytime heating over the North Island is expected to produce some showers this afternoon and evening. There is a low risk of thunderstorms and localised heavy rain about the centre of the North Island, including inland parts of Waikato, Waitomo, northern Taranaki, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay as well as Taupo, Taumarunui and Taihape. No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 10:09am 8/02/2025

Valid from 1:00am 9/02/2025 to 1:00pm 9/02/2025

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Issued at 10:18am 8/02/2025

Valid from 1:00pm 9/02/2025 to 1:00am 10/02/2025

A large high is expected to cover much of the country on Sunday. A weakening front should lie over the southern South Island. There is a low risk of thunderstorms about the Queenstown Lakes District and parts of inland South Canterbury during the afternoon and evening. There is also a low risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening about Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty. No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.

Thunderstorm Outlook for New Zealand

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):

Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.

Large hail:

Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.

Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):

Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.

Damaging tornadoes:

Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.

Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.