Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued at 7:23am 2/10/2025
Valid from 7:23am 2/10/2025 to 1:00am 3/10/2025
A front, moving southeast, is expected to cross New Zealand during Thursday afternoon and evening. There is a low risk of thunderstorms for Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula during the afternoon. The risk of significant convection or thunderstorms is minimal elsewhere in New Zealand during Thursday.
Issued at 8:28pm 2/10/2025
Valid from 1:00am 3/10/2025 to 1:00pm 3/10/2025
There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection during this period.
Issued at 10:58am 2/10/2025
Valid from 1:00pm 3/10/2025 to 1:00am 4/10/2025
Fronts bring periods of rain to the North Island. There is a low risk of embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon for areas from Taranaki, the central high country and Bay of Plenty northwards, as indicated on the chart. Conditions become more unstable during the evening and at night for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and the north of Waikato. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms during this time. Thunderstorms will bring localised heavy rain (with rain rates up to 25 mm per hour), strong wind gusts (up to 90 km/h) and possibly small hail. There is minimal risk of thunderstorms or significant convection elsewhere during this time.
Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:
Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25mm/h, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20mm in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110km/h (60 knots) or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 - i.e. wind speeds greater than 116km/h (63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.
