Severe category 3 tropical cyclone Zelia has passed well to the north east of Norfolk Island on a path that was not earlier predicted by the main international computer models – which picked it would pass south of the island.

Initial observations show the storm passed by incredibly quickly.

Zelia is tracking much further east which could have a new impact on northern New Zealand later on Tuesday predicts WeatherWatch.co.nz.

WeatherWatch.co.nz expects the centre of the storm to be near Cape Reinga within 12 hours (around 12 noon Tuesday, if not a little earlier).

MetService currently has no warnings in place for Auckland, Northland or Coromandel but does have a severe weather watch in place – indicating warnings are still a possibility.

However all government forecasters that are monitoring Zelia are still predicting the low will cross the west coast of the lower North Island but WeatherWatch.co.nz now believes there is an increased chance of the low making landfall much further north.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says there is a chance the storm may even track down the eastern side of Northland and not the western side as earlier predicted.  While that may sound like a huge change in the forecast the shape and angle of Northland always makes for a challenge when forecasting which side of New Zealand a tropical low will come down on.

Northland is also incredibly narrow, meaning the storm doesn’t have to jog too far east to have a different affect on the upper North Island.

If Zelia was to make landfall in Northland, or pass to the east, it could mean a change in weather warnings for the country on Tuesday morning.

Tropical cyclones are notorious for going against models even in the Atlantic where huge resources have been put in to predicting future tracking.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the storm is moving very quickly (over 60km/h) and will review the situation and predicted track early on Tuesday morning – by then overnight oberservations will help firm up a more concrete track of cyclone Zelia.

Needless to say all New Zealanders in northern, central and western regions of both islands should be aware of the latest forecasts, warnings, watches and weather news.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz

– Next update will be before 7:30am Tuesday