A tropical cyclone may briefly develop over the Coral Sea in the next 24 hours then weaken and head towards New Zealand around Thursday.

Think of a tropical storm as a candy floss machine – the centre of the low is the stick and as it spins in the tropics humid, hot, air attaches itself to the low, wrapping all around it. When the low tracks south it takes all this humid weather with it and can transfer tropical weather to New Zealand. This may well happen this coming Thursday and Friday before a southerly behind it clears things up briefly.

But New Zealand may be about to deal with a double dose of tropical trouble.

It’s possible that the first week of February will see another tropical storm to our north. The second one is too far out to lock in but models are suggesting it could impact New Zealand around Waitangi Day – although it’s still a very long way out and could miss us, but may bring dangerous beach conditions if it does eventuate and track nearby.

The beginning of February opens up the doors to the tropics north of New Zealand and could mean very heavy rain in both islands along with heat and humidity, especially for the North Island.

At this stage neither low is forecast to hit New Zealand as a storm – but it’s just highlighting the fact that the tropics are now becoming incredibly active and all it takes for New Zealand to be impacted by more hot and humid weather is for high pressure to leave our area and allow tropical lows to drift south towards us.

Feb 1st shows the remants of a tropical low over New Zealand (Weathermap.co.nz)

– Long range map for Waitangi Day suggests a tropical storm will be just north of New Zealand. This isn’t locked in and may change. Keep an eye on our Maps page for further details. Maps by Weathermap.co.nz

– WeatherWatch.co.nz