Here’s what is making the weather headlines this weekend….

CALM TODAY

High pressure in the Tasman Sea influences out weather today, while it is relatively settled we still have the odd shower drifting into western regions and about the far south this morning. Eastern regions have great weather although there could be some coastal cloud thanks to a front moving northwards just offshore to the east.

WEATHER MODELS BACKING OFF?

Well not for Sunday and Monday. Sunday still sees a cold change move in with plenty of rain, first for the West Coast and far south then moving up the eastern side of the South Island. Later in the day a front moves over the North Island with plenty of rain, heavy falls in the west and south (Wellington).

On Monday there is rain with a chance of heavy falls north of Banks Peninsula in the east thanks to a strong southerly airflow, rain for the lower North Island too. The upper North Island has a chance of thunderstorms with hail thanks to cold upper air.

But then from Tuesday on wards, what was looking like a wet week for the eastern South Island has gone. There may be some heavy rain first thing on Tuesday for North Canterbury and Marlborough but this then eases. Most of next week from Tuesday has rain firing into the eastern North Island with heavy falls at times there, something to keep an eye on.

Sunday and Monday look fairly consistent in the models as to what will occur but beyond that the outlook may chop and change from what we are seeing.

For any watches and warnings from Metservice as we move forwards, please see this page here.

The map below is out familiar “Precipitation percentage of normal” map. You can see how the heaviest rain coming up looks to be for the eastern North Island now.

The map above runs from today through to Saturday 10th June. Blue colouring means that part of the country is expecting more rainfall than would normally be expected at this time of year, red means less rainfall is expected and white is an average amount of rainfall. The more intense either red or blue then either scenario is more true.

WEATHER ON SUNDAY

A cold front moves northwards over the South Island, reaching the North Island in the west later this evening.

North Island

Showers in the west although north of Auckland may be dry till evening. Rain develops during the evening from Wellington right up through to Northland as a cold front moves in from the Tasman Sea, there may be heavy falls. Strengthening north to northwesterly winds change west to southwest later in the evening, gale southerlies develop through Cook Strait overnight. The east coast (Gisborne to Wairarapa) has a mainly dry day with high cloud, spits of rain for Wairarapa from afternoon and northerly winds, overnight rain for all as a cold front pushes over from the west.

South Island

Heavy rain for South Westland moves into North Westland after midday, South Westland starts to dry up in the afternoon with sun breaking through. High cloud for Nelson and Marlborough, rain develops in the afternoon, possibly heavy later in the day or overnight especially for Marlborough. Rain for Southland and Otago spreads northwards through Canterbury from late morning with persistent falls especially inland, overnight North Canterbury sees heavy rain. Rain for Southland and Otago eases to showers in the afternoon. Winds from the northerly quarter but changing south to southwest as the day moves along, gale southerlies develop for Canterbury from afternoon especially about the coast. Banks Peninsula, the Kaikoura coast and coastal Marlborough may see severe southerly gales overnight.

In the evening snow will have lowered to 400m about the lower half of the South Island, 500 to 600m for the upper South Island. Snow only gets down to 800m for the ranges of Buller, Tasman, Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds.

For the lower South Island, as the snow level drops the precipitation rates will ease so snow to lower levels will likely not be heavy, decent accumulations will be higher up.

• 

•