Here’s what is making the weather headlines today…

MAINLY DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS

Despite talk of a potential tropical cyclone early March, in reality it doesn’t look like occurring for New Zealand with any deep lows passing away too far to the northeast of the North Island, moving in a southeasterly direction. We still can’t count it out just yet but it’s looking less likely as we approach 3rd / 4th March.

Most regions for the next seven days are looking drier than average rainfall wise, just the eastern North Island where rain is needed the least looks to get an average amount of rain and this mostly falls today.

Later on Friday and into Saturday sees southerlies spread northwards over the country and eastern regions should see showers.

Map above. Red = Less the average rainfall, Blue = Higher than average rainfall, White = Average rainfall

TEMPERATURES WARMING UP

Afternoon temperatures lift over the next couple of days reaching into the mid twenties, inland parts of the South Island may reach into the late twenties Wednesday through to Friday. Just the West Coast is a bit cooler on average thanks to cloud cover and showers.

Saturday temperatures will noticeably drop in the east as southerlies punch northwards.

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THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEEKEND

Some more instability this weekend, about the Nelson region on Saturday and the Central North Island.

Sunday sees unstable conditions develop for the upper North Island.

Why are these conditions developing? The upper air is just cold enough and surface temperatures plus surface moisture is high enough to overcome stability in the atmosphere, the same old story when it comes to thunderstorms. Also winds converging at the surface will help.

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