Here’s what is making the weather headlines today.

⚠️❄️A significant polar blast is coming this week with #snow to sea level expected for a time in #Southland, #Otago & #Canterbury.

Light snow may also fall to low levels in parts of #Wellington, #Wairarapa & #HawkesBay.

Main risk days for snow & windchill are Weds & Thur. pic.twitter.com/QuE19pzySU

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) October 2, 2022

CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM – NORTH ISLAND

A southerly change pushing up the east coast of the North Island could trigger a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly Napier northwards. This is not a guarantee that storms will happen, just that there is a possibility. Showers will turn to rain this evening then ease overnight from the south.

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WEST COAST THE PLACE TO BE

The West Coast of the South Island is quite sheltered today thanks to the Southern Alps blocking cloud / showers coming over from the east in a southerly quarter airflow. While other regions may get warmer they don’t have the consistency across the day of mainly settled weather.

Skies should be mostly sunny, winds light then tending to the west or southwest this afternoon. Temperatures reach around 16 to 17 degrees for North Westland.

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SNOW / STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES STILL FORECAST TUE / WED

Southwesterlies push northwards over the South Island from Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Tuesday and on Wednesday morning the air is cold enough considering the time of year with snow potential getting down to about 400 to 300m for the South Island ranges Canterbury southwards.

But then around midday on Wednesday a second even colder burst of air moves onto the lower South Island and this air is cold enough that we may see snow to sea level about the far south then reaching up into Canterbury in the evening. Before this second burst moves in there may be a break in the weather for a time about the eastern South Island and in the evening showers will start to clear away from inland Canterbury and mainly go up the coast.

Late Wednesday and overnight into Thursday snow about the ranges of the lower and eastern North Island may reach about 400 to 300m.

Southwesterlies really start to ramp up from Wednesday afternoon especially about the far south then up the east coast of the South Island, reaching the lower North Island in the evening. Coastal gales look likely. Wednesday afternoon onwards the western North Island looks to get strong southwesterlies also.

Certainly an event to keep an eye on with wind chill factors likely to be very cold. Then it will be the growers on high alert with frost potential Friday / Saturday mornings as a high pressure system moves in. Some inland parts of the South Island may get heavy frosts early on Thursday morning if winds drop out enough and skies clear.