VIDEO: Weather forecast for NZ, Australia + Philippines super typhoon risk
14/04/2021 10:32pm
> From the WeatherWatch archives
Showers and windy westerlies will continue to impact parts of NZ and Australia with more showers and cooler southerlies this Saturday in NZ.
Next week a low will deepen offshore from Sydney and Brisbane and drift towards the upper North Island of New Zealand – likely bringing further wet weather there.
Meanwhile a typhoon is likely to develop east of the Philippines in the coming days with some chance it may become a super typhoon – but hopefully it will stop short of actually hitting Manilla and the northern Philippines around next Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Before you add a new comment, take note this story was published on 14 Apr 2021.
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Allan Natta on 15/04/2021 6:04am
Hi Guys
I admit i don’t much out weather forecasting but I am wondering if weather forecasting is more about reading the science than exact science. I have looked at your 10 days forecast compared to another prominent NZ forecaster and there is a big variants.
I am making the presumption anticyclones, isobars and depression etc look similar to all meteorologists if taken at the same time,
Why can do reputable forecasters have different views on forecasting?
I am taking my assumption from the 10day forecasting for Wanganui
Reply
WW Forecast Team on 15/04/2021 10:05pm
Hi Allan,
Forecasters choose from a variety of computer models, some put more weight into one product than another. NZ’s weather is often on the edge of highs and lows, so it’s down to a gut instinct sometimes too. If all forecasters had the same forecast there would be no need for competition. The NZ Government told us in November 2020 that WeatherWatch/IBM had the most accurate rainfall forecasts in NZ, but even being most accurate doesn’t mean perfection. However, our computing power with IBM Watson (supercomputer) means we can map the entire atmosphere (Google maps the earth, we map the atmosphere) and this gives us an advantage. But NZ’s location on earth – two mountainous islands partly in the Roaring Forties – means we have a lot of chaos and room for improvement, which is why you’ll often notice our forecasts are different to other NZ providers. Up to you, the public, to decide which ones you find most accurate for your area over time. Many people like to have both MetService and WeatherWatch to compare – and we highly suggest the public do that.
Cheers
Phil D
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