Due to Cyclone Alfred it’s a bit trickier than previous months to work out upcoming rain for NZ (and eastern Australia). (See Feb 28 video for Cyclone Alfred here).

The cyclone may well be around for a couple of weeks, cradled in place by strong and dry high pressure zones to the south of Australia, the southern Tasman Sea and New Zealand at times. These high pressure belts steer tropical cyclones – and can often block their movement.

But as we go into March there are more gaps between the highs – which allows rainmakers to drop south from the tropics, develop locally, or move out of the Southern Ocean area.

We’re still in NEUTRAL – ie, no La Nina, no El Nino.

We do our best at locking down some details in what is shaping up to be hot and dry for a large portion of Australia, while New Zealand has some chances to ease the dry weather – but it’s not 100% locked in, as Philip Duncan explains…