VIDEO: Australia: 7 Day weather + Severe Cyclone Jasper
6/12/2023 11:20pm
> From the WeatherWatch archives
Australia has severe & dynamic weather across a number of states, not just Cyclone Jasper heading towards Queensland next week!
It’s a busy video as we track the severe thunderstorms around South Australia, the downpours elsewhere (like Vic and NSW) along with the significant temperature fluctuations from hot to cold in the south east.
Cyclone Jasper (Severe Category 3 when we recorded this) is still strengthening – we bring you the latest forecast for the tracking of this storm next week in to Queensland, why there is uncertainty, and how high pressure west of Tasmania is controlling what happens as far north as Cairns and Cooktown!
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Before you add a new comment, take note this story was published on 6 Dec 2023.
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Lf on 8/12/2023 4:25am
The front down south, if that times it right, as jasper hits cooler water itll likely be drawn to it.
Brisbane to sydney smashed
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Vinessa Mary Dawn Ratcliffe on 7/12/2023 8:22pm
A kiwi living in NQ .Battening down the hatches !It’s a wait & see.Been through a few .All good
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Greg in NZ on 7/12/2023 6:14am
All the other ‘models’ I’ve been checking have TC Jasper going nowhere, stuck in situ, due to COOLER than expected SSTs in the Coral Sea and the large blocking high pumping up COOL sou’easters.
™Gobble Woaming™ ain’t what it used to be, plus MORE snow for the South Island? I’m dreaming of a White Christmas…
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WW Forecast Team on 7/12/2023 8:04am
Hey Greg, It’s all about amount of time at sea. As you say, it’s cooler than average, although it’s still warm enough to fire up a severe tropical cyclone. You’re right about that cooler airflow coming into it – especially if it stays at sea for more than another week then it may stall at sea and weaken. But if it comes in faster, it’s much more serious rainwise. Both GFS and ECMWF still have 300 to 400mm forecast in 36 hours for coastal Queensland. See our latest update – as we mention your scenario of it stalling: https://twitter.com/WeatherWatchNZ/status/1732653370295619846
P.s – A burst of snow in NZ in summer happens from year to year and is not as uncommon as you might think. Summer frosts are also an almost year occurrence in the lower South Island at some point, even in January/February. But the overall trend is warming. Its why we’ve probably had 3 “severe” tropical cyclones just 5 weeks into the official season.
Cheers!
Phil D
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Gregory Jones on 7/12/2023 6:47pm
sea temperature has a lot to do with it above 26c or more to keep a cyclone strength up.
Normally the water below Bundaberg is cold enough to make a cyclone turn into a low depression with a lot of rain and gale force winds but you never know what cyclone can do could do a uturn and go north let’s see.
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