Last Updated 10:24pm Tuesday — Low pressure has transferred from west of NZ to east of the country on Tuesday with a new centre rapidly deepening just east of East Cape. “Deepening” refers to the air pressure at the centre of the low dropping, creating a more powerful low pressure zone with strong to gale force winds developing around it.

The low will be offshore over the Pacific Ocean, but as it grew on Tuesday PM rain and gales increased out from the centre and then expanded into the eastern North Island – placing Gisborne and Northern Hawke’s Bay directly in the firing line for wind and rain, but neighbouring regions also have some risks.

See current MetService warnings and watches here.

Subtropical airflows, the high altitude jet stream north of NZ, and the pool of low pressure and colder air over parts of our country are all giving this low the ripe conditions to become more intense.

💨Same next 24 hour wind #gust map as previous post, but closer view: pic.twitter.com/lESxJnzPwP

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

Wind #Gusts for the next 24 Hours.

Powered by our partners at The Weather Company – the world's most accurate weather forecast data. pic.twitter.com/EiagkZkuLk

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

🌀And #BigPicture really shows the size of the storm.

It slowly starts to weaken across Wednesday and Thursday – and slowly drifts eastwards away from #NewZealand.#WinterWeather pic.twitter.com/X900NxtxFZ

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

💪🌀Peak winds and strength of the #storm affecting the North Island will be across tonight.

⚠️Severe weather risks continue into Wednesday but the worst of the winds look to be this evening/overnight.

Maps powered by Weatherzone. Modelling by ECMWF (Europe). pic.twitter.com/u2DzSXIJ7P

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

When the satellite map looks like this 💪… the weather is usually packing a punch.

⚠️Eastern North Island. pic.twitter.com/wIsPaUUHaZ

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

🌀⚠️Past 6 hours infrared satellite imagery and central air pressure.

All that large low pressure energy hanging around NZ for 12 days is now compressed into one spot!

🚨This sudden storm is likely to peak in power over the next 12 hours, while it's closest to #NewZealand. pic.twitter.com/7q7uu0JOJs

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

☔️🚨Heavy rain in the lower North Island this afternoon: #Wairarapa

⚠️ Localised #flooding a possibility. pic.twitter.com/Pj2qptTsTH

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

🛰️🌀#3pm: Current satellite imagery, severe gales and air pressure.

⚠️All official @MetService warnings here: https://t.co/7xoHnjeNiw pic.twitter.com/sOI2BNhi1i

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 25, 2024

A testament to computer modelling. A day ago this didn't exist yet here we are this morning with it getting stronger as it moves near East Cape.

Modelling picked this low days ago: A storm, suddenly born & forms rapidly.

Forecasting tech isn't perfect but it can be impressive! pic.twitter.com/BgDAVasRME

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 24, 2024

Here’s a snapshot in time of four of the world’s best computer models for 9pm Tuesday (as of 3pm Monday):

KEY:
↖Black Arrows represent potential for damaging winds.
💧Rainfall shows 24 hour forecast rainfall 11pm Mon – 11pm Tue.

🌀Close up of #NewZealand's weather on Tuesday as a low pressure centre rapidly deepens and swings around to push rain and wind into the eastern North Island… 💪

⚠️Keep up to date with @MetService warnings & watches. pic.twitter.com/IKHsMaSVua

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) June 24, 2024

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Fog risks are again high early on Tuesday morning around parts of NZ before any windy weather kicks in – but it’s worth noting the wind from this newly forming low pressure centre will help lift that fog for the North Island during the morning, likely earlier than some places saw it lift on Monday…the time will vary depending on how fast the low strengthens.

You can view fog graphs in our new WeatherWatch App under “Trends”, they update hourly.

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The South Island isn’t so affected by this low at this stage, but the north-eastern corner will likely get some of the rain and it’s possible that cloud, drizzle, patchy rain and colder easterly quarter winds will slide right down the eastern coast for a time.

The low is expected to continue in this location all week – but will weaken as we head towards Thursday/Friday with peak power possibly Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM.

A narrow ridge of high pressure moves in to NZ later on Wednesday and into Thursday and Friday (ahead of the next cold front this Friday and Saturday) pushing this east coast low away from land.

• Maps powered by Weatherzone, graphics created by WeatherWatch
• WeatherWatch.co.nz