High pressure today slides further east of East Cape and this placement means a milder sub-tropical or northerly flow kicks in.

Let’s get into the forecast for Tuesday to begin with…

RAIN:
Today is a dry day nationwide – any potential shower will be isolated.

WIND:
Nor-west winds will strengthen over parts of NZ today, especially around central NZ – ie, north of Christchurch and south of Napier. Winds may be a bit more north-east in the upper North Island.

TEMPERATURES:
Sub-tropical winds move into the lower South Island today – so between them and the nor-westers blowing further north, most places will be warmer today than usual for the start of October.

WEEK AHEAD
By Wednesday the high moves off most of NZ and low pressure starts to form behind it over the Tasman Sea along the entire western coastline. This ramps up winds to gale or even severe gale from the north to north-west, especially in eastern parts of NZ and around central NZ. Rain also moves into West Coast with heavy falls and some spills over into Southland and Otago too. Rain or showers are also possible around Northland and BoP.

On Thursday a large area of low pressure forms – heavy rain is possible in some regions, but it’s still a developing situation.

And by Friday that low continues to spin over the NZ area bringing once again a mix of rainy areas and large dry spells too.

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Programming Notes:
– We have no weather video Tuesday – we return on Wednesday
– Our October ClimateWatch outlook is issued on Wednesday afternoon
– Our next 7 Day Australia-only video is out on Thursday (only one Aussie video this week).

☔️⚠️Heavy rain is forecast in a number of regions as a low forms and strengthens next few days – then it likely stalls and weakens.

Rain forecasts will move around a bit this week due to this set-up, but here's where heavy rain might be an issue:

💧https://t.co/wOjfrBFhCB pic.twitter.com/Lm3z3LyXFQ

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) September 30, 2024

As always, drill down deeper with your hyper-local, hourly, 10 day forecasts at WeatherWatch.co.nz – or download our Free WeatherWatch App.