Tropical Storm Alex is expected to be upgraded to a Hurricane overnight tonight as it gets better organised in the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm passed over the Yucatan Peninsula and has now moved back out over water.

It’s heading towards the US / Mexico border.

If Alex becomes a hurricane overnight it will become not only the first named tropical storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season but also the first hurricane.  Tropical Storms are when winds average gale force while hurricanes are double that speed with sustained winds of 120km/h.

See the latest warnings and advisories from the National Hurricane Centre…

TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

…ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED…

INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 415 MI…665 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

 WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————

AT 100 AM CDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM… MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY…MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.