Updated 3:58pm — WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters continue to monitor a developing low directly north of New Zealand which will show up clearly on our weather maps in the next day or so. 

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorlogy say there is a “moderate” chance of the low becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.  WeatherWatch.co.nz says many computer models are picking a cyclone – or cyclone strength storm – forming this weekend.

The low, which will rapidly deepen this weekend in the Coral Sea north west of New Zealand, is expected to hit or brush the upper North Island on Monday and Tuesday next week. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz has been monitoring the tropics for a few weeks now and head weather analyst Philip Duncan says we are now heading into the peak of the cyclone season. “It very quickly ramps up as we head into February and we’re seeing thunderstorms and showers forming right across the tropics and that will intensify in the coming days. These areas of thunderstorms can then start rotating – turning into a low which can then become a cyclone”.

Mr Duncan says campers and holidaymakers shouldn’t cancel their plans yet as there is a significant amount of uncertainty still.  “If you have a relaxed schedule I’d say wait until the weekend to work out your plans.  The low has the potential to bring gales and flooding but with the upper North Island’s regions so narrow it’s quite easy for these systems to deliver the worst weather out at sea. We will need a couple more days to be more certain”.

However Mr Duncan says the low is in a “prime position” to make a direct hit to the upper North Island.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says people living or on holiday in the upper North Island should be monitoring this low closely.   It’s likely to bring a period of rain and strong winds around Monday and Tuesday before moving out into the Pacific by Wednesday.

“We think by Friday we will have a good idea about the future of this potential storm”.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz