As predicted by WeatherWatch.co.nz yesterday Tropical Cyclone Vania has strengthened even further overnight to become a Category 3 cyclone (on a scale that goes up to 5).

The cyclone has today reached hurricane force with winds averaging 120km/h.   Using the more well known American system (The Saffir-Simpson scale) this would only be a Category 1 Hurricane, yet still very damaging to buildings and infrastructure.

Yesterday we saw the power that even a weak tropical cyclone could do.  These exclusive photos show damage to Port Villa, Vanuatu, when Vania was moving from a tropical storm into official cyclone status.  Now the storm has category rating three times higher and is moving towards Noumea, the capital of New Caledonia with a population of 100,000.

Vania is expected to move over New Caledonia later today.

Meanwhile WeatherWatch.co.nz has this morning confirmed that two reliable computer models are predicting Vania will make a direct hit with the North Island around Tuesday or Wednesday next week. 

All this week the two models have been showing Vania moving towards New Zealand in the coming days but this morning is the first time the two have had a similar alignment.

WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the cyclone is tracking on a similar path to Cyclone Drena back in January 1997.  “It’s following quite a similar path to Drena and the future track by most models appears to point at Vania moving down our western coastline before crossing over the North Island, just like Drena.  If this happens it will mean more rain for those dry regions”.

But Mr Duncan points out that cyclones have a personality of their own.  “I’ve always had a huge fascination with Atlantic Hurricanes and one thing I’ve found over the many years of observing them is that no tropical storm is the same as another.  Just because it’s following a similar track to Drena doesn’t mean it will be as damaging, or cause the same problems in the same areas.  We need to wait a little longer to be sure of what this system is likely to bring”.

Vania will move through fairly quickly next week, which will be good news for holiday makers.

“Remember we do expect this system to weaken once it leaves the tropics.  It has potential to bring quite stormy weather to New Zealand but we are still in the early stages.  We advise people to continue with their camping plans and holiday plans but to simply be aware of Vania and keep up to date with the latest weather news over the coming days, and be prepared just in case things do turn nasty”.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz will provide frequent updates on Tropical Cyclone Vania in the coming days.