WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters are continuing to closely monitor a predicted deep and aggressive low near Fiji this coming weekend and with each passing day confidence is mounting that this could become the first tropical cyclone of the south west Pacific cyclone season.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says reliable models – which accurately picked past cyclones such as Yasi and Wilma – is now predicting a large storm this Sunday in Fiji.  “The models show this likely tropical cyclone slamming Fiji from the east on Sunday and Monday then it has the potential to drift towards New Zealand”.

Mr Duncan says Fiji residents should be preparing now for floods, landslides, coastal flooding and powercuts.

However Mr Duncan says it’s too soon to know if the predicted tropical cyclone could impact New Zealand, but suggests that things are stacked against it reaching us.  “We expect the swells to possibly reach New Zealand from the north east but as for wind and rain it’s still too early to say but looking unlikely at this early stage. Historically speaking it’s in a prime position to reach us but the one thing confusing things is a large high currently over New Zealand”

The large high is expected to remain in control and in charge of New Zealand’s weather for at least another seven days.

Highs are basically one of the main enemies for tropical storms – they can help pull them apart and kill them off – so having a high protecting New Zealand could be helpful.

Image / Sunday evening NZT / weathermap.co.nz – see more maps here

But it depends on your definition of “helpful”.

The deluge that accompanied last week’s tornado in Auckland reversed the incredibly dry conditions across large portions of Bay of Plenty, Waikato and other North and South Islands regions.

However Gisborne and Hawkes Bay mostly missed out and are bone dry.

James Morrison (@weatherbom on Twitter) specialises in frost and rain forecasts for winegrowers in Hawkes Bay and he raised a valid point on Twitter on Tuesday; “4.9mm of rain in Hastings in the past 4 weeks. It looks like February not December”.

In other words – Hawkes Bay desperately needs rain.

A potential cyclone brushing New Zealand’s north eastern coastline – which would affect Gisborne and Hawkes Bay – could be a blessing in disguise if not a direct and aggressive hit.

So what are the chances this potential cyclone could hit New Zealand?  WeatherWatch.co.nz says “low risk”. 

“Unfortunately – or fortunately depending on how you look at it – the high that will be to the east of NZ next week – and is currently over us today – looks likely to stop this storm from hitting us.  This high may last, in fact, until Christmas Day but will likely weaken over us in the days before Christmas”.

WeatherWatch.c.o.nz will monitor the storm and will update again this week – as the location of it makes it “one to watch” even though the current threat to New Zealand is deemed to be “low” by WeatherWatch.co.nz.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz