UPDATED — The Fiji Meteorological Service has Thursday evening named the tropical storm churning south east of Fiji.  It’s Tropical Cyclone Bune.

The category 1 cyclone has sustained winds of 65km/h and gusts to 85km/h with winds expected to become sustained at 85km/h by dawn.  It is tracking away from Suva and the main island of Fiji into the open waters between Fiji and New Zealand.

Central air pressure is 990hPa and the storm is strengthening.

Again WeatherWatch.co.nz bucks the trend and predicts the cyclone will reach category 3 status or even 4. This was the case with Wilma, Atu and Zelia, all of which became far more intense than predicted by government forecasters.

Image — Tracking of Tropical Cyclone Bune over the coming two days / JTWC

Computer models used by WeatherWatch.co.nz show that Bune will track along a similar path to Cyclone Atu, which passed New Zealand’s North Island in the third week of February this year. 

However latest computer model runs by ECMWF – the organisation that has accurately picked all south west Pacific cyclones this year – shows Bune tracking closer to Gisborne and East Cape in the North Island.

The centre is expected to track within 200 to 800kms of East Cape.  The big difference is based on extremes by the various models we use.

Should Bune track 200kms east of East Cape it’s possible winds will reach gales force with heavy rain – but being so far offshore it should mean no severe damage. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz says it’s still too early to be certain of any exact track or severe weather over New Zealand but people in East Cape and near Gisborne should be aware of dangerous surf and rips next week – which could stretch down to Hawkes Bay.

Swimmers and beach-goers along the North Island’s entire east coast are advised to simply be aware of stronger than usual rips next week says Weatherwatch.co.nz.

Cyclone Bune is expected to drift very slowly south west or south-south west over the coming days, with it strengthening and speeding up as it heads near East Cape early next week.

The latest tracking map by the Fiji Meteorological Service