The big high pressure zone over NZ is parked across the upper North Island for Thursday and by Friday it clears off the country to our north-east. This placement encourages sub-tropical winds down over parts of NZ which means overnight and daytime temperatures will go up for many places.

However this is all ahead of a wintry change coming into the country on Monday, where a possible blast of air off Antarctica may directly come into NZ. It’s not yet locked in, but is certainly showing up in computer modelling.

Here’s the general forecast for Thursday …

RAIN:
Thursday is another dry day across much of New Zealand thanks to the strong high pressure zone, but rain falls in Fiordland and south westland and patchy rain or showers brush Stewart Island and maybe some parts of Southland and then later the northern half of the West Coast. A few light showers are also possible in the western North Island.

WIND:
It’s a windier day on Thursday for many regions as the high slips off and away, allowing for gale westerlies in some parts around central NZ and through the Southern Alps. Severe gales are not forecast.

TEMPERATURES:
From a temperature point of view those windier westerlies and partial subtropical winds means temperatures are above average today and tomorrow in many parts of NZ (and this coming weekend). Frosts are far less likely in the coming nights too.

5 DAYS AHEAD:
On Friday subtropical winds continue, especially around the North Island, ahead of low pressure and some windy wet nor’westers on Saturday for the North Island and upper South Island. There’s a chance Nelson and Marlborough may get some rain from this one.
On Sunday more windy nor’westers carry on around NZ with western rain and showers .. this warm and windy set-up is ahead of a potential Antarctic blast coming in on Monday. It’s too early for details but snow is possible to low levels in the lower South Island, this includes snow potential in main centres like Queenstown, Gore and maybe Dunedin.

Sea level snow is also possible around Fiordland, Southland and Otago on Monday – but this won’t be locked in for a few more days. Snow flurries on the Desert Road of the North Island are also possible on Tuesday.

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🚨❄️#Developing: #SNOW and subzero temps are still likely on #Monday Aug 19 across #OTAGO & #SOUTHLAND.

This is an #Antarctic blast right off the ice – but it's short lived. Spring-like westerlies are kicking in after this event and may herald an early start to spring weather. pic.twitter.com/wxdueEO4Ts

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) August 14, 2024

#Australia is riding a unicycle to #NewZealand today… pic.twitter.com/MFZwVwB8Od

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) August 14, 2024

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