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11:30pm Mon: Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now at its closest point to Vanua Levu, with the centre of the eye roughly 60kms offshore to the east.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says it will cause major damage to homes and infrastructure along the eastern coastline until dawn NZT and continue to cause major damage to the islands dotted south east of the mainland until at least Tuesday afternoon NZT.

The monster storm, which is more aggressive than Hurricane Katrina when it made landfall near New Orleans, is now tracking southwards which means it should now spare the main island of Fiji including the capital Suva and holiday resorts near Nadi.

WeatherWatch.co.nz’s head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the storm looks incredibly dangerous.  “The eye of the cyclone is clear to see on the satellite maps.  Tomas is an aggressive storm that is unfortunately very likely to cause widespread damage to the north eastern Fijian islands”

The strongest winds are gusting up to 270km/h. 

Tomas is currently a weak Category 4 cyclone and overnight will most likely become a strong Category 3.  “There is very little difference between a weak cat 4 and a strong cat 3.  Either way this is a very serious tropical storm”.

The eye of Cyclone Tomas can be clearly seen in this latest image.  The two main islands of Fiji can be seen south west of the eye, outlined in white.  Image / GOES NOAA

Tomas is moving very slowly which significantly increases the potential for serious flooding and wind damage.

WeatherWatch.co.nz this morning spoke to Newstalk ZB Account Manager Laura Noblejas currently holidaying near Nadi.  “We’ve been told to pack our suitcases and be prepared to evacuate from our water front hotel tonight, most likely between 6 and 9pm”. 

Newstalk ZB drive host Larry Williams interviewed Laura Noblejas just after 5pm NZT and she says it’s still quite sunny with only a light breeze.  “Many shops including Westpac and ANZ have closed their branches while smaller businesses have moved stock to higher shelves in case of flooding.  Some buildings have cyclone shutters and wooden boards up over windows”.

4 metres waves are expected tomorrow on the western coastline, furthest away from the cyclone.

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UPDATED

Meanwhile Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, category 4 also (as of 8pm Monday NZT), is now heading in to the open waters of the Coral Sea.   Philip Duncan says while these are twin cyclones they certainly aren’t identical. “Born on the same day in the same part of the world but the two are quite different. Tomas is larger in size but isn’t predicted to get any more intense, if anything he will weaken tonight.  Ului on the other hand is smaller but will be far more intense – a bit like a figure skater pulling its arms in Ului will spin faster and cover less area”.

IMAGE: Ului weakened a little today but in the past couple of hours the eye has started to form again.  Image / GOES, NOAA

The severe tropical cyclone is predicted to become an intense Category 5 cyclone overnight tonight NZT with winds gusting up to 350km/h later on Tuesday. 

Computer models show the cyclone will brush the Queensland coast and WeatherWatch.co.nz says coastal damage could be severe with “phenomenal seas” likely.

Current estimated time of arrival for Ului in Australia is this weekend according to WeatherWatch.co.nz with northern New Zealand potentially in the firing line around Wednesday next week.

Mr Duncan says it’s still too early to know what sort of impact Ului will have on New Zealand, if any, and for now his focus remains on Cyclone Tomas and the immediate threat it poses to Fiji.

“So far one fatality has been reported but it’s certainly a concern that there could be more – this storm is fierce”.

Cyclone Tomas poses no threat to New Zealand.