UPDATED
The “same old” weather pattern that New Zealand has endured for the past three months may be showing signs of changing as we head towards the middle of summer.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters have been closely watching a new pattern forming around southern Australia which may bring a change in a weather for next week…but before that,

For Wairarapa and the eastern hills of Wellington MetService has issued heavy rain warnings. 

“Rain is expected to become heavy tonight in a strong to gale southerly flow,easing late Saturday morning. In the 12 hours from 10pm Friday to 10am Saturday,60 to 80mm of rain is likely in places. The heaviest falls are expected early Saturday morning, when intensities could reach 10 to 15mm per hour for a time” says MetService.

And looking ahead to next week we may see even more weather warnings. 

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says for the past few days all the computer models and data have been pointing to one thing – a large low forming near Tasmania. “We have had week after week of highs in the Tasman which have fed relatively cool west to south west winds for many regions. What we may be looking at next week is a low forming near Tasmania and pulling hotter air down from the northern Tasman to New Zealand along with heavy rain for the west”.

Mr Duncan acknowledges that long range forecasts aren’t always too accurate. “While I can’t say for sure if your BBQ next Thursday evening will be rained out, I can tell you that for the past few days the long range weather maps and data are showing a good chance of conditions becoming wetter and more humid”.

Weather analyst Richard Green agrees. “We’re seeing the highs that have dominated the Tasman Sea since November finally showing signs of weakening. We don’t know how long for but next week we may be looking at hotter nor’westers in the east and heavy rain in the west”.

It was also too early to say if much needed rain would move in to drought stricken Northland but WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say this is the “best shot” at rain there in quite some time.

THIS WEEKEND
Meanwhile this weekend is looking stormy for Wellington and eastern parts of the North Island.  Rain and gales are predicted to affect the Capital while a cold wind will keep temperatures down along the South Island’s east coast.  Last night conditions were so cold Cantabrians were lighting their fires.

Heavy rain warnings are possible about the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay ranges this weekend while sunny and hot conditions are likely along much of the nation’s west coast.

Image / Kerry Payne