WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say the rough weather that has been affecting Sydney and Brisbane this month, in the form of thunderstorms and torrential downpours, may come New Zealand’s way early next week in the form of a deep Tasman Sea low.

Computer models have stepped up the severity of the predicted low each and every day this week.

Latest updates now show a fairly deep and sizeable low in the central Tasman Sea early next week – following more thunderstorms over eastern Australia which will slide out to sea this weekend.

While thunderstorms aren’t our main concern, heavy rain and strong to gale force winds may be.

The low is likely to become quite deep – but the centre may remain out at sea, dropping south instead of directly crossing the country – this reduces the weather risks for New Zealand to some degree.

However the heaviest rain may well be away from the centre – the low will drag down moisture rich sub-tropical air. The good news? Rain will fall over dry parts of northern regions of both islands.  The bad news? It may be heavy enough to cause some slips and flooding.

Winds may be strong enough to cut powerlines and break tree branches in isolated areas too.  

Still early days – but this low is one to monitor.  

As always, WeatherWatch.co.nz will provide extra updates on this low if the models continue to show it being intense.  Certainly the conditions are ideal for a low to deepen in the Tasman Sea this Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

The low may well be followed by another one a few days later (next weekend)

Christmas Day is still too far away to lock in…we should have the first basic forecast early next week.

image / File, mandenomoments.com

– WeatherWatch.co.nz