The official start to summer in New Zealand and Australia is now just 10 days away and the forecast at this early stage looks more like October’s weather than December, for New Zealand at least.

While long range forecasts, especially in spring, can change, the models have been fairly consistent for a few days now that a low is likely in the final day(s) of November followed by a larger Tasman Sea low for the start of December.

If the computer models are correct – a combination of US data and data from here in New Zealand via Weathermap – then we can expect a few wet and windy days between December 1 and 3 – followed by a cold southerly change.

It’s not unusual for December to see spring-like weather though.  In fact a number of New Zealanders don’t believe summer officially starts until the longest day of the year, the Summer Solstice, which is a few days before Christmas.

Either way, the hotter weather is already slowly moving in – but a brief cold change in early December may temporarily halt that.  We’ll keep you updated over the next week or so.

– Image / rain and wind map for Dec 1 shows a large low in the Tasman Sea / Weathermap – click the MAPS tab for the latest

– WeatherWatch.co.nz