A frontal boundary associated with the strengthening Tasmanian low could bring a round of thunderstorms to the North Island this afternoon and tonight.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say the greatest risk for thunderstorms will be from the Coromandel Peninsula to Auckland…then south through the Waikato and western Bay of Plenty to Taranaki.  Auckland and Coromandel are running a low risk for thunderstorms.  Bay of Plenty, Waikato and Taranaki are running a moderate risk.  However, there is a high risk for pockets of heavy showers across these regions.

Government forecaster MetService has also highlighted this area as running a moderate risk for thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  Small tornadoes are possible, but the greatest threat is from heavy rainfall and strong winds.  MetService feels that rainfall rates of 10-15mm/hr are possible with wind gusts up to 90 km/h.

This is despite that fact that some sunshine is actually being seen today.  Auckland, Hamilton, Pirongia and Te Awamutu are just some areas that have seen sunshine today.

Heavy rain warnings remain in place for the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape/Gisborne, south-eastern Wairarapa and the north and east of the South Island.  Heavy rain should begin to ease about the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty this evening.  Gisborne and Hawkes Bay should see the heavy rain threat ease tonight.  Wairarapa could see the heavy rain threat continue into early Tuesday morning.

In Canterbury, the Dunedin district and North Otago rain is expected to become heavy this afternoon.  Heavy rain could linger into Tuesday afternoon for Canterbury, but may ease about Dunedin overnight tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Homepage image/  Austin Soriano

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph