The spring-like weather pattern that is bringing a mixture of smiles and frowns across the nation so far this summer looks set to remain in force over the South Island and lower North Island – but the end is in sight.

WeatherWatch.co.nz provides detailed monthly reports for dairy giant Fonterra, breaking down the weather forecast week by week, region by region – and the conclusion is this: Summer slowly gets going in January.

WeatherWatch.co.nz defines a ‘spring-like’ pattern as a changeable one that sees winds swinging from north to south every few days bringing showers – this has been the pattern over many southern and central areas for the past few months.

While 2014 will kick off with showers across many parts of the nation the general weather pattern is now finally showing signs of being hooked on summer.

“For the final two months of 2013 we’ve seen very little in the way of big, settled, highs.  This was great for farmers who desperately needed rain but now holidaymakers desperately want the sun” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

“We see a monster of a high pressure system south of Australia in the first half of January and we expect this giant anticyclone to slowly drift towards New Zealand by the end of week two”.

However windy weather may proceed the high for some eastern, central and southern areas – the flipside of that means daytime heating in the east and inland should increase.

Sub-tropical lows
It wouldn’t be summer in New Zealand without the threat of a tropical storm.  At this stage the tropics remain fairly active but aren’t producing a lot directly north of New Zealand.  Long range computer models do show a potential tropical low or storm drifting towards New Zealand later in week 2 of January however the incoming large high from Australia may well bat this low back out into the Pacific Ocean.  One to monitor if you have interests in the north of New Zealand.

January – who wins & who does not…

• Wettest: Sorry South Island West Coasters but most of the rain makers will be clipping you in the first week or so.  Rain or showers are predicted on days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10.  Then dry we hope!
• Windiest: Again Wellington is in for windy weather, fairly normal for a ‘spring-like’ pattern. But calmer weather is coming for you mid month (and it wont be windy every day up until then!).
• Hottest: Eastern areas like Hawkes Bay & Marlborough 
• Driest: Northland, eastern Coromandel, Bay of Plenty (unless a tropical low comes in – which isn’t currently in the forecast but one will be nearby in week 2, so one to watch via our maps) 

– Image / File, Roderick Davison

– WeatherWatch.co.nz