Wellington, Kapiti Coast, Manawatu and Taranaki are just four regions south of the central North Island that have enjoyed some fantastic weather lately, but it’s all about to end. Yesterday Kapiti took the nations high with 23 degrees, while several 22s were felt across those regions and other parts of the country.

“Spring seems to be following Winter’s pattern with large highs to the east of New Zealand bringing mainly sunny conditions to the bottom two thirds of the country, meanwhile the top third has rain and strong nor easterlies” says TRN’s head weather analyst Philip Duncan. “Yesterday winds reached nearly 120km/h in coastal Northland and up to 100km/h in coastal parts of northern Auckland, all thanks to the high to the east and a low to the north – a carbon copy of July and August”.

But the weekend isn’t going to be so great for the rest of New Zealand, as another slow and disorganised low pressure system develops in the northern Tasman. “What we mean by disorganised is that it’s messy and difficult to predict. It doesn’t have a clear pattern to what it’s doing. An organised system, like a storm, shows clear rain bands moving in a certain direction and at a certain speed…disorganised makes them chop and change, die and reform, and not move with the normal, predictable characteristics we’re used to seeing with a low and associated frontal bands”.

Because of this, weather predictions for the country, especially the top half, seem to be changing by the hour, but one thing is likely – it’s going to be cloudy and wet in most areas. “With a system like this it’s hard to predict exactly where the rain bands will move and how much rain will be in them…but we can say it’s best to bet on a cloudy and probably wet weekend for most areas”.

Blustery winds are also likely from Auckland northwards.

Duncan says that global forecasting giant weather.com is predicting showers or rain for all of New Zealand “at some stage this weekend” with the chance of rainfall about 60% to 80% from Southland to Gisborne to Northland and everywhere in between.