MetService wanted itself and competitor Niwa Weather shut down in favour of a new Crown weather forecasting agency because of the state of the sector, just-released documents show.

This was the recommendation of the state-owned enterprise in its written submission to the government’s review of public weather forecasting services Project Hau Nuku.

In its submission, MetService advocated strongly for a fresh start because ‘‘inefficient competition’’ with Niwa Weather had diluted the authoritative voice on severe weather, potentially threatening lives, and undermined collective response to major events.

A new Crown entity would be the best way to provide New Zealanders with the most accurate forecasts and warnings to help save lives as climate change made storms more extreme.

However, the reviewer, Sapere, instead recommended to the government ‘‘full integration’’ of the two existing organisations, Crown research institute Niwa ‘‘acquiring’’ state-owned enterprise MetService and allowing it to operate ‘‘as a subsidiary, at least initially’’.

In late September, Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Judith Collins subsequently announced the government’s ‘‘in principle’’ support for Niwa to absorb MetService, subject to legal and regulatory approvals.

MetService last year commissioned the Polis Consulting Group to prepare its Project Hau Nuku written submission, entitled ‘‘Forecasting Success: Maximising capability for a changing climate’’.

The submission was released to the Otago Daily Times this week after an Official Information Act request.

The submission focused on the need for a new forecasting agency, saying it would be in ‘‘the best interests of New Zealand’’.

‘‘MetService must acknowledge in good faith that in their current state neither MetService, Niwa nor a simply merged combination of the two, can offer the capabilities our nation needs.’’

MetService proposed a two-phase transition.

The first would formalise the ‘‘swim lanes’’ between it and Niwa.

Interventions would include a common shareholding minister or shared board, mandated collaboration and ‘‘an end to competition as far as is practical’’.

Those moves alone would be unlikely to address market ‘‘dysfunction’’.

Phase two would then create the new Crown entity.

Among other benefits, the two-step process would help with ‘‘minimising risks of culture clash’’ posed by any immediate merger, the submission said.

However, that did not find favour with Sapere.

In its final Hau Nuku report, in May, it concluded a new organisation — its third option — would be less efficient and effective and cost more than Niwa taking on MetService — its option two.

‘‘Given the data gaps, high-level nature of this and the time available, there is a somewhat wide range and low level of evidential certainty.

‘‘Nevertheless, we are confident that there is a relative difference to option two sufficient to progress with only considering option two.

‘‘We recommend an immediate transition towards the preferred option.’’

Despite the rejection of its plan, MetService chief executive Stephen Hunt told the ODT he welcomed the ‘‘in principle’’ decision to become part of Niwa.

‘‘We agree with the government’s recommendation, and we see this as a positive step for MetService, Niwa and for New Zealand.

‘‘We believe the review team’s recommendation to bring us and Niwa together will provide the best weather forecasting system for New Zealanders.’’

MetService staff had put a lot of energy, thought and analysis, along with much evidence-based data, into the written submission.

‘‘Weather forecasting is a vitally important service for every New Zealander and we know that weather is changing.

‘‘We also know that forecasting is complex.’’

In its submission, MetService also considered and discounted other options for a renewed forecasting system, including a MetService-led merger, a Niwa-led one or stricter guidelines to separate the two.

It said the value of accurate weather forecasting was better measured in terms of its benefits to the life of New Zealanders, the economy and national security, than as ink on a balance sheet.

Conservative estimates in 2018 of public-good forecasts provided by MetService had a benefit to cost ratio of between 10:1 and 48:1, the submission said.

‘‘This means that MetService delivers somewhere upwards of $333million to $1.4billion in value per year, completely eclipsing the dividends returned to the Crown — an average of $1.8m a year over the past 30 years.

‘‘The appropriateness of the state-owned enterprise model for weather forecasting needs to be called into question.’’

Niwa chief executive John Morgan said the CRI did not make a written submission to the Sapere review because it did not require one.

– By Paul Gorman, ODT
– Photo: RNZ

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This story was republished with permission from The Otago Daily Times

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Also recently from the ODT on Niwa and MetService…

• Nov 16 – MetService sought new agency, documents show
• Nov 30 – As rain fell, “competing” information flowed