As we approach our second cold snap this week it may be hard to focus on a potential tropical event in 10 days time – especially when it may not even pan out. However reliable computer models are picking an interesting set up that could produce a narrow but tropical line of very heavy slow moving rain over the country at the end of next week.

A set up like this – where you have a vein of tropical rain stuck between two highs has, in the past, created flooding conditions over localised parts of the North Island. In fact the flooding and huge rain totals we saw in March in Auckland, Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula was caused in part by a set up like this.

The rain may also contain an ex-tropical storm and an ex-Tasman Sea low – which may encourage heavier downpours.

It also may be follow by the third cold snap in 10 days for New Zealand (although this 3rd cold snap may be more South Island focused).

With the North Island wetter than average any tropical rains will be an issue – so we’ll keep you posted.

Remember, it’s still a very long way out, so we do expect things to change in the forecast models – but a few of you have asked us about this possible set up so we wanted to cover it as best as we can this far out.  Check back for more updates in the coming week.

– Super long range, the forecast for next Friday (10 days from now) shows a significant tropical fueled rain event over the country. Too early to lock in, so keep an eye on our rain maps and check back for news updates over the next week. Map by Weathermap.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz