The forecast for this weekend has dried out a little bit further with latest modelling showing the heavy downpours around northern New Zealand may be even more isolated – but just as intense – this Saturday and Sunday.

An incoming high pressure system looks like it may win at pushing even more of these showers out to sea over the Pacific and away from the upper North Island.  Earlier this week WeatherWatch.co.nz said an area of humidity and downpours, mostly out at sea, would brush the entire upper North Island around Saturday and Sunday.  Today the latest rain maps show those showers being pushed even further out to sea – meaning more places on land may be dry in the north.

On Saturday there are heavy showers that may pop up anywhere across the upper North Island, most likely around the ranges from Hawkes Bay, Central Plateau, Taranaki northwards.  Not everyone will get a downpour – they will grow with afternoon heating and drift where the sea breezes and light winds carry them. We’ll monitor them here at WeatherWatch.co.nz if they look significant in any of the populated areas.

There may also be a couple of light showers around coastal Canterbury and eastern Marlborough on Saturday – otherwise mainly dry.

By Sunday the country is 80% dry but around Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula there is the chance of an afternoon cloud build up, downpours, and even isolated thunderstorm as the hot + humid weather continues.

ANNIVERSARY MONDAY
It’s both Auckland and Nelson Anniversary Weekends – and Monday looks dry and warm!

VICTOR’S SWELLS
Ex-cyclone Victor’s dangerous rips, currents, swells and waves continue to affect the eastern coastline of New Zealand – and today WeatherWatch.co.nz has extended the risk zone all the way south into Otago.  The dangerous beach conditions will continue across Friday, but should start to ease somewhat into the weekend.  

Northern beaches in the east, like BOP, Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland and Northland, should start to see conditions easing across Friday with hopefully calmer beach conditions for some beaches this long weekend. However remaining swells from the east may still be a bit rough for a few remaining beaches – Cormandel Peninsula in the east may still see larger waves too and dangerous rips at some popular spots, like Hot Water Beach for example.  Use commonsense before going in the water and by checking the latest beach or marine forecasts before leaving home. 

– Image / Saturday at 7pm shows isolated, but possibly heavy, downpours – Weathermap.co.nz

– WeatherWatch.co.nz