You’d think the month that transitions us from Spring to Summer would be a turbulent one full of dramatic weather events – but the truth is, November can be eerily quiet compared to October and December.  Since WeatherWatch.co.nz (known then as the Weather Watch Centre) first kicked off in 2005 we’ve noticed one thing – our ratings flatten out in November.   That reflects something we already know – November’s weather can actually be fairly dull.

Gone are the big winter storms that blast the country with snow, hail and gales (although all three are possible in November, the snow and hail are certainly less likely).  But November is also too early for the big sub-tropical storms or the heat waves.

Sometimes we get a hot nor’wester that finally breaks the 30 degree mark, certainly recent national highs indicate we are edging closer and closer to this with highs reaching 26 degrees lately.

But with some regions in the east now starting to dry out will November be a worrying month for farmers and those on limited water supplies?

The short answer is yes, the long answer is yes but that comes with a “but”.

The ‘but’ being – yes it will be a concern, but we are in a La Nina weather pattern which does give us the “wild card” – a decent rain bearing low from the sub-tropics is possible at any given time.

In November last year droughts were just starting to get underway across the country – they were all at the bottom of the scale but it was a concern for many farmers.  At the same time WeatherWatch.co.nz and NIWA were both saying “the rains are coming” – while it was a nervous wait they did come later in December. The droughts were over before they started and we headed into a summer that had brilliant hot days but some good rain events too.

This time around NIWA aren’t quite so optimistic about the rains, suggesting that the type of La Nina we have this year may not favour the same big rain makers as last summer.

So will this November be an extra dry one?  At this stage we don’t see any evidence to suggest that, with a big rain maker near New Zealand for the first week of November according to the latest long range data.  That heavy rain will then be followed by a very large high… perhaps this November won’t be the quiet month it’s been in previous years?  We’ll keep you posted…

– WeatherWatch.co.nz

HAVE YOU SAY — Do you have any November weather memories?  Is it a boring month to you weather-wise or an exciting one?  Post your comments below (and don’t forget to use a name or handle!)