A southerly change on Friday moving up the South Island will merge with a developing low over the upper North Island on Saturday, deepening the system and bringing two or three days of unsettled weather – mostly to the North Island.

The rain bands will be quite broken up – meaning even within regions rain will be mixture of heavy set-in falls and much lighter, more drizzly and dry spells. Due to the size of the low and the North Island’s mountains and ranges expect rain to linger in some areas while nearby it may be fairly dry. Keep an eye on the rain maps on our website and free app to get a better idea as to how exposed your area is, as seeing it in map form may be a better way of understanding it.

Over the weekend high pressure will build over the South Island which will encourage a windier sou’east flow over the North Island on Sunday and Monday and mainly dry weather for the south.

Based on the maps and models WeatherWatch.co.nz trusts the centre of the low – which will track over the upper North Island across the weekend and Monday – may well contain 50% dry and 50% wet, with the upper half of the centre looking fairly dry. The InfoGraphics below also highlight this, showing the very northern tip of NZ may be much drier than just a little further south towards Waikato, for example. A fine line though – so one to monitor.

Next week high pressure rolls in and brings mainly settled, dry, weather to most regions for most of the week.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz – Proud to be an official IBM business partner