75cm of snow in parts of Canterbury is no passing cold snap, but a sign that colder temperatures are well on the way and we are only just starting to see the brunt of winter kicking in at last. It makes NIWA’s announcement that the coldest temperatures this winter would pass by the end of July and be followed by milder temperatures for the rest of season look nonsensical. Nor will the cold stop anytime soon as September and October should also be unusually cold.
We don’t have it on our own. This was always going to be a southern hemisphere phenomenon. This is the coldest winter in Argentina in 40 years and in Bolivia 6 million freshwater fish have frozen to death where it is one of the coldest winter in decades. Buenos Aires has had snow only three times since 1918 and two of those times have been within the past month. It’s been the coldest winter since 1908 in Chile. South Australia and NSW were last week 8 deg below the average. Ski operators on both sides of the Tasman are breaking out the champagne and I expect Falls Creek to get four times their snow average this season. But you can get too much of a good thing. I expect a problem arising soon of snow blocking access roads which could render some snow fields unusable, even as late as around the end of October.

Definitely cool with an easterly breeze but the forecast for Invercargill should read ‘sunny spells with the chance of a shower’