While the next sub-tropical low waits in the wings there’s still plenty of uncertainty as to whether or not it will bring a wet and windy Friday and Saturday in the north.

Computer models used by the Weather Watch Centre show a definite disagreement in the predicted track.  Some are now showing it falling through the central Tasman Sea and only affecting Fiordland.  Other forecasters predict it might bring heavy rain to northern New Zealand on Friday or early Saturday.

MetService has confidence it will bring heavy rain on Friday or Saturday for northern parts of New Zealand however their confidence levels are rated as “low”.

The issue around the uncertainty is a large high pressure system currently over the South Island, which will spread a ridge over the North Island during the week.  If it grows only slightly it may be enough to keep this low offshore and see it tracking down the Tasman.

We expect a much clearer picture this evening as to what is happening this Anzac Day right across the country. 

Meanwhile another chilly day is on the way for South Islanders.  Cold southerlies kept a number of places only just in double digits yesterday and while today may be a degree or two warmer for many it will still be a cold one…but another warmer day for Coasters.

Cooler sou’easters will also affect much of the North Island.