All this week WeatherWatch.co.nz has been monitoring the various models closely as we keep the focus in place for the upper North Island following recent flood and gale events.

Northland in particular is vulnerable to rapid and siginficant flooding from not-so-significant amounts of rain.  It means forecasters are paying extra attention to any forecast rain for northern New Zealand.

A high pressure system is expected this Sunday and Monday across most, if not all, of the country.  By Tuesday a cold front will move in from the Tasman Sea bringing rain to western and northern New Zealand.

At first it looked as though the high for Sunday and Monday would then sit out east over Tuesday and Wednesday holding up a rain band.

That high now looks as though it may help keep the pressure up over northern New Zealand – not stopping the front but eroding much of the potential sub-tropical elements which create torrential downpours and therefore higher flooding risks.

The airflow around the front is also coming in from the west – rather than the north east which feeds straight into northern and eastern parts of Northland, so rain and showers will come in from the west – with lighter falls the further north you go (which is the opposite of recent events).

We’ll continue to monitor but at this stage we hope it won’t cause any issues.

JULY TO END WARMER & WINDIER
The month of July has been far more average temperature-wise compared to our record breaking June warmth.

The end of July will be windier and slightly warmer.

Following a high on Sunday and Monday – the first one to fully cover New Zealand this month – the weather turns westerly – with sunnier, warmer weather in the east and cloudier, wetter, weather in the west.

Temperatures nationwide should creep up next week – and at this stage the first day of August may kick off quite windy and wet….with the westerly flow continuing into the first week of August.   

COLDEST WEEK OF THE YEAR?

While a nationwide polar blast is always highly possible in August and September WeatherWatch.co.nz believes this week (July 20 to 26) will be the coldest nationwide week of 2014 for New Zealand based.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz