Before the month is done NZ has some rain coming but the nation is basically looking at a fairly dry end to July – and warmer than average too.

This set up isn’t that much of a surprise as the pattern that has dominated 2019 so far continues.

We’ll start in the east. The entire eastern coastline of the South Island and the lower North Island look especially dry with just a few showers up to maybe 5mm. Further north in eastern areas from around Gisborne up to the Bay of Islands and a little more rain is forecast thanks to a couple of weak sub-tropical lows, with totals between now and August 1 ranging from 10 to 30mm.

The western North Island has low totals, just 2 to 15mm looks like the spread, while the western South Island has the greatest totals with 30 to 100mm (the heaviest rain in Fiordland National Park).

For the most part the rainfall in the final week of July is well below normal for this time of the year but a few regions, like Northland, Cormandel Peninsula and the West Coast may have normal totals over the next week.

As well as the dry, daytime temperatures will continue above normal for most places. Overnight temperatures will also lift for some in the nights ahead due to more sub-tropical or northerly airflows.

RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT JULY 31:
GFS (America)

ECMWF (Europe)

7 DAY UPCOMING RAINFALL COMPARED TO NORMAL (GFS):

Red = Drier than average. White = Normal rainfall. Blue = Wetter than usual.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz