The sub-tropical low is moving in and the timing of the rain and wind matches our forecasts.  Let’s start with the winds – these are now building around parts of the North Island mostly just WEST of any main ranges. For example, Thames, Paeroa, Te Aroha, Levin, Kapiti.

We have two areas of strong winds.  Firstly, we have gales wrapped tight around the centre of the low in the north.  These are the ones that will rapidly build up tonight (but rapidly ease too) as the centre of the low moves in.

Secondly, we have an area of wind and rain that is disconnecting somewhat from the main northern low.  This is the ‘squash zone’ between the low in the north and higher air pressure further south.  Both zones can be damaging due to the wind direction (which is opposite to the prevailing gale westerlies).

For the upper North Island winds will gradually continue to build late this afternoon – but for some, especially to the SE of the centre of the low, gales will quickly ramp up this evening, again made worse by any ranges or mountains to the east or south east.  In particular this will be the western Coromandel Peninsula and eastern Waikato.

For those in the lower North Island the winds will build this evening and peak during Weds AM. In particular this will affect inland Manawatu, Horowhenua and Kapiti. 

Central Plateau and Taupo are also exposed to these gusty and potentially damaging winds overnight.

However – it is important to note these strong winds are caused more by the geography of the North Island than the low itself.  This is why much larger chunks of the North Island, possibly including most of our main centres, might not be as stormy.

Auckland is in a unique position – the centre of the low is expected to cross the city around midnight.  While this will mean winds ease it also means a burst of gales could affect some exposed areas, especially in the east, for a time this evening.  Gales in Auckland may not be widespread but the risk factor is there for a time this evening. The risk is much higher across the Hauraki Gulf and towards Coromandel Peninsula, which affects places like Whangaparaoa, Waiheke Island and other eastern coastal areas – the further east and more exposed you are the windier it will likely be.  

WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts the line between gales and the almost calm centre of the low at midnight in Auckland will be less than 100kms.

As for rain – as predicted it has been heavy all afternoon across Coromandel Peninsula and eastern parts of Northland.  For Auckland there has been one hour of heavy rain with another hour to go before it eases.  We don’t anticipate serious issues from today’s rain in Auckland. 

Some Auckland roads and motorways are being affected by surface water which will, unfortunately, slow down commute times this evening.

Finally – with the centre of the low moving in to Auckland this evening it could mean storm surges for some highways – including the nor’western Motorway at waterview, Mission Bay and other eastern coastal highways later tonight. If you have to drive tonight, please take extreme care and keep up to date with highway information, the latest forecasts and weather news.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz

Your Weather Observations:  What are conditions like where you are?  (don’t forget to say where you are!)