It may seem hard for North Islanders to believe it.  Even South Islanders north of Christchurch may not realise it.  But the deep south is dry.

Very dry.

According to the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Otago and Southland received less than half their normal rainfall for December.

Milford Sound, Puysegur Point, Dunedin, Manapouri, Lumsden, Gore, Invercargill, Balclutha and Tiwai Point all came in with rainfall well below normal.

In fact, Queenstown and Puysegur Point had record low rainfall dating back to the 1870’s.

It looked like their might be some relief on the way this weekend.  However, high pressure appears to be ready to nose in.  This will keep the atmosphere stable and things rather dry through Monday.  The next, best chance for rain looks to be late Tuesday into Thursday morning.

Then the question becomes, will Southland and Otago go right back into the exceptionally dry pattern that was in place in December.

That’s not so easy to answer.  It would appear that the pattern we were stuck in during December will continue to a few more weeks.  That being the case, it seems logical that the predominantly dry weather would continue.  Having said that, the models are trying to paint a very wet picture for the entire South Island, including Southland and Otago, starting a week from Monday and lasting for several days.

As someone else has already said, “I’ll believe it when I see it”.