As precipitation continues to spread across the North Island today, the threat for heavy rain about parts of the NI continues to grow.

Here’s the latest:

Models continue to indicate the possibility of a period of heavy rain tonight for southern sections of Auckland as well as all of the Coromandel Peninsula. Taranaki and Waikato could also see some heavier stuff tonight.

At issue for these areas is the fact that the “heavy rain” doesn’t look like it will be that heavy in terms of total rainfall. However, quick bursts of heavy rain could lead to some surface flooding and minor river flooding. The chances of that happening are about 50/50.

Tomorrow, the heavy rain threat shifts east and south…and increases.

During the morning hours, heavy rain is expected to affect parts of the Bay of Plenty, East Cape/Gisborne and possiby the southern Coromandel Peninsula. The threat for heavy rain will then continue into the afternoon and evening.

Government forecaster MetService has now posted Heavy Rain Warnings for the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane. They estimate that by late tomorrow night, 120mm to 160mm of rain could fall. They feel the heaviest falls across this area will be between 6pm today and midday tomorrow and rates could reach 20mm/hr.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters believe that the heaviest rain should arrive a bit later than that for Bay of Plenty We believe it will start either during the overnight hours or early tomorrow morning. WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters also believe that there is a higher threat for heavy rain for East Cape/Gisborne than there is for the Coromandel Peninsula. However, as mentioned earlier, heavy rain for the Coromandel Peninsula can’t be ruled out with the best chance being tonight.

Homepage image/ CH Davis

By WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph