Weather.com’s Hurricane Expert Dr Rick Knabb says wind shear should remain low enough to allow Tomas to restrengthen as it lingers south of Hispanola.

Then, a deep dip, or “trough” in the lexicon of meteorologists, will swing into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week, likely steering Tomas north-northeastward toward Hispanola.  Incidentally, this trough will keep Tomas away from the mainland U.S.

Here are some quick forecast snippets regarding Tomas:

– Tomas should begin its turn toward the north-northeast Thursday.

– Jamaica’s locally heavy rain/gusty winds can be expected to arrive Wednesday, and persist through Thursday or early Friday.  There is only a slight chance of hurricane-force winds, mainly on the far eastern end of the island.

– Outer rainbands will probably arrive into Hispanola Thursday, feeding out of the southeast.

– The center of Tomas should either cross over or pass very near Hispanola Friday or Friday night.  Its intensity at that time should be somewhere between a strong tropical storm and a Category 2 hurricane. 

– It is possible Tomas may linger north of Hispanola and Puerto Rico Saturday through Monday.  Therefore, locally heavy rain could linger in Hispanola beyond Friday and could eventually develop in Puerto Rico. 

Projected path (Click to enlarge)

Model tracks(Click to enlarge)

As we laid out on the previous page, it doesn’t take an intense hurricane to lead to significant impacts in Haiti.  In this case, a tropical storm with heavy rain can be life-threatening in Haiti. 

Watch video:  Tropical update