A deep low is moving across the country this weekend but high pressure returns to New Zealand next week. 

With so much unsettled weather lately – and a LOT of wet days – many are wanting us to look for the positives.

The good news is that once we get through this low this coming weekend, next week is looking much drier, much calmer and there’s a far lower risk of severe weather.

Stay positive New Zealand!

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WIND:
With this big low moving in this weekend there may be some windy areas, but the bulk of the gales will be out at sea.

High pressure dominates next week FAR more than this week – so expect plenty of calm conditions generally speaking. Winds also look variable across next week.

The next chance for a burst of windy weather looks to be over a week away around next weekend. At this early stage it doesn’t look too bad then either (although may be around Cook Strait and the usual NW wind tunnels etc). This may also help for a slightly warmer end to next week then the beginning.

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RAIN:

There is a risk of further flooding in Canterbury this weekend but the good news is that the area of rain we’re concerned with is very narrow and latest modelling suggests it may not hit areas worst hit by recent flooding. It remains ‘one to watch’ though – but there’s plenty of positive news coming next week if you’re sick of the rain…

Next week:

• Monday: Showers clear in the North Island by the end of the day. Mostly dry in the South Island.
• Tuesday: Dry nationwide wide (highest risk for showers around Fiordland).
• Wednesday: Dry to mostly dry nationwide (highest risk for showers around Fiordland).
• Thursday: Mostly dry nationwide, chance of rain on the West Coast.
• Friday: Mostly dry nationwide, chance of rain on the West Coast and maybe Nelson Ranges area.

Clearly things might change a little bit – but the general trend next week is for higher air pressure and therefore fewer lows to bring in wind or rain.

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COLD AIR / TEMPERATURES:

South Island:
Next week many places return to more “normal” temperatures after many areas have seen warmer winds at times lately. Frosts will return to usual places (like Otago, Southland, Canterbury). Overnight lows dip down to around 0 to -3 at the coldest points – but in the north Blenheim’s lowest temperatures of the week is only around 2 degrees on Tuesday.

Daytime highs in the South Island next week may start with single digits but climb into the teens for most at some point, especially later in the week.

North Island:
Perhaps a bit cooler next week for some places (after much warmer than usual weather, eg in the east) but generally next week looks frost free. Tuesday is the coldest morning of next week at this stage and by the looks of the 10 day data in most places temperatures will be above freezing – apart from around Central Plateau where light frosts are possible a couple of nights/mornings next week.

Daytime highs next week are about average but may still be a degree or two above where we should be for August.

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POLLEN

With lower temperatures and less wind next week pollen levels shouldn’t be as high as they may have been in recent weeks.

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Hopefully these silver linings will make most of you smile – or at least feel a bit of relief after what has been an exhausting few weeks (months even) weatherwise around many parts of the country, especially for those who have to work out in it.

– Image / A beautiful sun dog by Zelda Wynn, Auckland.

– By head forecaster Philip Duncan, WeatherWatch.co.nz