While rain during the weekends in summer is often considered poorly timed WeatherWatch.co.nz has advice for those who need rain: Make the most of what falls tonight and Sunday, it may be your last for a while.

A deepening low is approaching New Zealand and on Sunday will cross over the South Island with a burst of rain with pockets of heavy falls. Downpours will stretch from Southland to Northland and into the dry east coast.

But rainfall totals, especially in the most northern and eastern parts of the nation, may not be as high as they need to be – and the concern we have at WeatherWatch.co.nz is the big dry coming in behind it pushing already dry regions into possible drought territory.

This news will be perfect for holidaymakers – but for those in need of rainfall the forecast of completely dry to mainly dry for the following 10 days will be of concern to many.

However the rain on Sunday will bring relief to some farmers, growers and gardeners – and may well delay a more serious ‘big dry’ a couple weeks into February.

As of next week WeatherWatch.co.nz expects high pressure to dominate northern New Zealand while the South Island is still a little unsettled – but the chances of severe weather dramatically drop. 

While there may still be another chance for showers in the north or east they are unlikely to be widespread or heavy enough from a regional point of view to be considered significant.

February may well be hotter and drier for many regions – but the west to sou’west flow will still continue now and then but rain bearing fronts may not be so intense and look more focused on Fiordland and Westland etc.

The weak La Nina is also likely to die out in February according to many scientists – and while it has not affected New Zealand this summer (ie, few easterlies, little humidity and northern and eastern areas are currently the driest and not the wettest) the return to ‘neutral’ conditions means New Zealand is likely to get ‘more of the same’ in Feb but with less intensity. In other words, the tropics may not be so fired up to send us a rainmaker. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz will have more news next week on the developing Big Dry across various parts of the nation – and we’ll soon be providing more detailed updates on the potential rainmakers to both the New Zealand Government (MPI) and the New Zealand public.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz