A tropical cyclone is likely to form this week north of NZ around New Caledonia, while at the same time a colder southerly change moves into the lower South Island.

At this stage the possible cyclone may only impact New Caledonia – with powerful high pressure from south of Australia zipping into the NZ area later this week and should keep the low well to our north.

Meanwhile the southerly change in the south arrives on Wednesday and heads north Thursday – temperatures will take a bigger hit in the south, but for those in the north of NZ it will be a brief cool down – then back to dry and mild.