As predicted by WeatherWatch.co.nz Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu is continuing to intensify with the Fiji Meteorological Service saying this mornign that Atu is now an intense category 4 cyclone.  This prediction was made exclusively by WeatherWatch.co.nz seven days ago.

The air pressure has dropped to 940hPa and winds are sustained at 170km/h with that expected to rise to 185km/h by afternoon.

WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the storm will continue to intensify over the coming days.  “The sea temperatures are favourable, the atmopshere is favourable and Atu will cross the same body of water that saw Wilma go from a cat 2 storm to a cat 4 storm back on Auckland anniversary weekend.  It were these factors that lead us to believe several days ago that Atu would build into a dangerous cyclone”.

WeatherWatch.co.nz was the first weather organisation to predict the cyclone almost a week ago, based on data from the European ECMWF weather charts.  “We took that data, we looked at the sea surface temperatures and the surrounding air pressure systems and concluded that Atu was going to have all the ingredients to become a severe tropical cyclone.  We didn’t make that decision lightly to forecast the system so early in advance but we felt confident of the models and current data”.

Just 24 hours ago the Fiji Meteorological Service believed Atu would only reach category 2 status, however the storm has rapidly intensified.

High air pressure west of New Zealand is helping guide the cyclone out of harms way as far as New Zealand is concerned although big seas are still a possibility in the east, mainly between Northland and East Cape between Wednesday and Friday.

Meanwhile the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has shifted their prediction of Atu’s future track slightly closer to New Zealand but severe weather still remains unlikely with the centre of the storm expected to be too far offshore.  WeatherWatch.co.nz says it’s possible Atu will track close enough to East Cape and Gisborne on Thursday to bring strong winds and large seas but doubts winds will be damaging.

It’s expected that Atu will be closest to New Zealand on Thursday but a direct hit still remains very unlikely with WeatherWatch.co.nz rating the chances at less than 20%.

Some long range models are also picking Atu to track closer to East Cape than they did yesterday, however WeatherWatch.co.nz points out that models can sometimes shift tack for 24 hours before returning to their original prediction.  It will be another 24 hours before WeatherWatch.co.nz is confident the tweaks in today’s modelling are accurate.

Coincidentally the name Atu means “Born on Saturday” and Saturday was the day this tropical depression officially become a cyclone – however the name is part of a long list of names decided well before the cyclone season started, if not years before, and was simply ‘the next name on the list’.  Atu is a male name.

Atu’s predicted track and strength – Fiji Met

		Warning: Gales or stronger within 24 hours				Very Destructive Hurricane Force Winds
		Alert: Gales or stronger within 24-48 hours				Destructive Storm Force Winds
						Damaging Gale Force Winds

Atu’s threat map to land / Fiji Met

Atu’s track as predicted by the JTWC

Latest satellite imagery – NOAA / GOES  (Click to animate)

– WeatherWatch.co.nz