Some years we can see a lot of high pressure moving in and 10 days out we can quite confidently say ‘Christmas Day will be sunny’ – other years a stream of lows can make it easy to call a wet day in advance.

This year, however, our messy weather pattern is making it much harder to see what the most likely forecast for Christmas Day will be.

Like the final minutes of a close sports game, we can see all the players on the field – but it’s going to be a close call as to who will dominate when the whistle sounds…in other words, we have to get a bit closer to Dec 25th before making a firm call on Christmas Day weather.

What we do know:
More rain is coming.  Heavy showers with thunderstorms will pop up on Wednesday this week and more rain or showers will spread south (from northern NZ) on Thursday.  The weekend looks a bit unsettled with rain or showers returning and lingering into next week as another low crosses the country.

We also know that a large high south of Australia is moving in towards the country next week – but it may not be strong enough to fully block all the rain clouds on December 25th.

Our Current Christmas Day Outlook
We can’t be specific – it’s just too close to call this year with so much activity weather-wise around New Zealand.

However the unsettled nature of the weather increases the risk of clouds across New Zealand.  We think there will be a few showers in the forecast but tending towards dry for the most part.  We also don’t have data that suggests it will be an overly hot day….not cold either, but somewhere in the middle  

So at this early stage: An increased chance of cloud, a decreased chance of rain compared to previous days, and temperatures in the late teens or early 20s for many.

We’ll be able to fine tune this forecast in far more detail later this week…including highlighting areas where rain is more likely.

Image / File, Claude Therond

– WeatherWatch.co.nz