Starting from now and not easing until around Friday January 6th, stronger east to nor’east winds may become a constant in some exposed parts of the upper North Island.

“A low pressure system between New Zealand and New Caledonia is trying to move our way, but thankfully for most holidaymakers powerful high pressure has been in charge across our country keeping most of this low pressure offshore” says WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan. “However as the high – for now – does the job of slowing down this low from coming in, it creates a ‘squash zone’ of windy weather halfway between the centre of the high and the centre of the low – and this will cover the upper North Island, from about Coromandel Peninsula northwards”.

Windiest days look to be mid to late this week.

According to WeatherWatch.co.nz and RuralWeather.co.nz wind data from IBM the general forecast calls for winds of 30 to 65km/h (16 to 35 knots) around some exposed eastern beaches / coastal areas from today (Jan 1) to Friday (Jan 6). There may be some localised areas, mostly from the very rural north of Auckland to Cape Reinga, where winds may reach over 80km/h (43 knots) and above, which is gale force and approaching severe gale.

Winds will be blustery in exposed areas but because this isn’t a storm the straight line squash zone winds do mean our hills and ranges will bring shelter to some parts of northern NZ.

Windier E to NE winds may even slide down the coastal side of Canterbury.

“This isn’t technically a storm for New Zealand, but for those in tents and awnings the windy weather can be a bit of an issue and we can’t rule out pockets of severe weather here and there. Advanced notice gives people plenty of time to get some extra pegs, sort where to put up tents/awnings and to where to park vehicles in front of tents” says Duncan.

There’s also the possibility of a few branches broken and some isolated power outages.

Generally speaking, winds peak around this Wednesday and Thursday – and then rain and showers will develop in the days after with isolated heavy falls, as the low finally moves in and starts to fall apart.

As much as 70 to 100mm of rain may fall in some northern and western areas in the coming week – mostly later this week and next weekend. Not everyone has rain – those in the east from Gisborne southwards don’t see as much, especially Hawke’s Bay.

The offshore depression will also generate dangerous rips and large waves – even if the weather on land is calm and dry. This may become more of an issue for upper North Island beaches mid next week.

“Hopefully for many people this will be a brief annoyance rather than a major headache, but it’s good to be in the know of what is creating our weather while so many of us are outside amongst it day in and day out” says Duncan.

The low is expected to move in to the NZ area late this coming week and weekend and then fall apart – bringing a few days of broken up rain bands and heavy showers for holidaymakers and farmers.

More nor’easters and showers are possible next week too.

• WeatherWatch.co.nz