The skies over New Zealand this afternoon are a mix of sun and cloud as a large high continues its progression over the nation.  But waiting in the wings is the first sub-tropical low of the summer season and while not a tropical storm it has the potential to drop very heavy rain.

But before it arrives most Kiwis can enjoy settled, mostly dry, and less humid weather.  Conditions over the country this afternoon are fairly settled with just a few showers popping up here and there due to a few cloud build ups.  With lower humidity and heat this afternoon big showers, like earlier this week, are not anticipated.

A low continues to deepen off the Queensland coast this afternoon. 

This will be the first sub-tropical low to affect New Zealand in some time but while has big rain potential it doesn’t look deep enough to create major winds.  In other words, it’s not a storm.

Blustery conditions are expected over the Top Half of Sunday, but that’s more due to the incoming low arriving at the same time as the departing high to our east starts to strengthen a little – pushing back on that low and squashing up the isobars.

Winds from the north east could be strong in exposed areas but WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters believe it will remain under the threshold for wind warnings for land.

But as with any system that comes from the humid sub-tropics, it’s one to keep a close eye on.

Computer models, while confident of plenty of rain next week, aren’t yet confident of exactly where this low will go.  Most agree it won’t be especially aggressive as far as air pressure is concerned but one should never underestimate the volatility of anything with a tropical connection.

For that reason WeatherWatch.co.nz will be providing daily in depth updates as the wetter and more humid week ahead approaches.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz