It’s hard to believe it but in just four months time it will be spring.  Yesterday I tweeted something along those lines as 2012 rockets along.   I think that 24 hours for a child feels the same as one week for an adult. .  I can remember when I was little thinking on a Monday that Friday seemed liked “forever away”.  These days I think “I don’t have enough time in my week before Friday”.  And before I know it, it’s Monday again.  Where does the time go?

Each month WeatherWatch.co.nz provides a monthly forecast to Fonterra – to give dairy farmers our predictions on temperatures, rainfall and general weather patterns for the next few weeks.   We’ve been providing them with this service for 14 months now.

In our latest report we predicted that temperatures in the coming week or two will again remain average to above average for many areas.

Despite the cold snap hitting some parts of the country today and tomorrow this cold snap is hardly a national event.  Temperatures will certainly tumble over the next 24 to 48 hours, especially at night, however a new high is already heading towards the Deep South and by the end of Wednesday it will cover much of New Zealand too.

The high will remain in charge until about Sunday and with each day temperatures across New Zealand will start to creep back up again as the current southerly flow becomes a distant memory.

The northerly flow that develops on Sunday and Monday (as this next high starts to depart) will again push temperatures up – and with a large low with sub-tropical connections moving in behind it you can see why we think temperatures aren’t quickly slipping towards winter.

However while we expect the start of May to be average to slightly above average temperature-wise, we don’t know what the very end of May will hold.  What we do know is that the stream of highs coming in from the west look like they will continue for the next two to three weeks but at the same time the Southern Ocean is finally showing signs of life.

At some point one large low will be a game changer and winter will arrive.

Winter in New Zealand officially starts in four weeks…with no La Nina or El Nino at play we may well have a similar winter to last year – creating a real mixture of weather conditions which could break records at both ends of the scale (warm and cold).  If the pattern we’ve had so far this year continues into Winter we may well see a drier winter with warmer conditions in the north but with these intense highs will also think there is an increased risk of a Antarctic blast.  These are just theories though, based on current patterns.

But if you’re not a fan of winter at all just remember this – in two months time the days will start getting longer again and in four months time it will be Spring.

– Homepage image / Peter Shone

– By head weather analyst Philip Duncan